Monday, December 29, 2008

Prices dropping for all grades of paper


Prices dropping for all grades of paper
Posted by D. Eadward Tree
http://deadtreeedition.blogspot.com/2008/12/prices-dropping-for-all-grades-of-paper.html

Deflation has now officially hit the market for publication papers: Prices for everything from newsprint to coated freesheet have declined this month, several sources indicated in the past week.

December prices were down even in the formerly rock-steady market for high-grade supercalendered paper (SCA) paper, according to both Pulp & Paper Week and Deutsche Bank. Mark Wilde of Deutsche Bank put the December drop at $10 to $20 per ton and said SCA prices could continue declining if demand for lightweight coated (LWC) remains weak. Until recently, analysts were predicting that SCA prices would remain steady or even rise during 2009.

"Newsprint prices are slipping," Wilde wrote, with declining costs and the Canadian dollar making mills more willing to accept lower prices rather than shutting down. The Deutsche Bank analyst agreed with Pulp & Paper Week that newsprint dropped about $10 to $15 per metric ton in December, breaking a string of consecutive monthly price increases that had pushed newsprint prices up more than $200, or about 35%, since the summer of 2007.

FOEX reported a slight drop in U.S. newsprint prices last week, while Forestweb reported that newsprint prices are flat. But Forestweb's North American Publishing Papers Index decreased in December because of declining prices for coated papers.

Prices for LWC and other coated-groundwood products dropped $35 to $70 per ton in December and are "coming under increased pressure, wrote Wilde. "With consumption likely to remain weak and the US$ rising (increasing threat from imports), producers will remain at battle stations through 2009," he added. High customer inventories, decreasing catalog circulation, and a weak advertising market for magazines are all dragging down coated groundwood.

The CEO of Abitibi Bowater (aka AbitibiUnderwater) admitted to the Globe and Mail this week that his biggest fear was a collapse of demand in the first half of next year. Despite the bearish news on pricing, shares of the newsprint giant doubled in price during the week (to 52 cents, down from $20.47 at the beginning of the year). AbitibiBowater stock was boosted by news of an apparent sale of some hydroelectric assets, production cuts by competitors, and the company's statement that the current quarter will be more profitable than the previous quarter. All of that boosted hopes that the company will remain solvent despite having $1 billion in debt payments due during the coming year.

Stocks of such other publicly traded paper companies as Verso, Domtar, and Catalyst were generally flat for the week. Wall Street had already accepted that demand and prices will decline. The big question is whether producers will idle enough capacity to prevent paper markets from collapsing.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Paper war breaks out as White Birch undercuts Abitibi


Paper war breaks out as White Birch undercuts Abitibi's price discipline
By Andrew Ragsly
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/25d563fa-cb97-11dd-ba02-000077b07658,dwp_uuid=e8477cc4-c820-11db-b0dc-000b5df10621.html

White Birch Paper broke ranks with other newsprint manufacturers this month by slashing prices to capture market share amid dwindling demand, industry sources and two buysiders told Debtwire.

Privately held White Birch is the second largest producer of newsprint in North America with 18% of total market share. The company is flouting attempts by industry leader AbitibiBowater to enforce price discipline by lowering its going contract rate. Abitibi wants to protect pricing in the face of persistent order declines from ailing newspaper publishers, said the sources.

Specifically White Birch cut a deal with Gannett Company this month to supply newsprint through 2009 well-below November's industry-average price point of USD 770 per ton, said two of the industry sources and one of the buysiders. While at a lower price point, the deal is rumoured to boost the volumes White Birch will supply to Gannett year-over-year, one of the sources said.

The pricing war is hitting AbitibiBowater at a particularly inopportune moment. The company faces USD 919m of maturities over the next year, including a USD 347m Libor+ 800bps term loan due 30 March. Management needs to impress lenders with a bullish cash flow story if it hopes to refinance those obligations, said the buysiders.
Spokespersons for White Birch, AbitibiBowater and Gannett declined to comment.

Abitibi's USD 347m Libor+ 800bps term loan was bid at 75 today, down from 82 on 2 December, according to Markit. Bowater's USD 250m 9% traded at 27 on 3 December, down from 45 on 19 November, according to TRACE. White Birch's USD 100m Libor+ 480bps second-lien term loan was bid at 15 today, down from 33 on 10 November. The company's USD 475m Libor+ 275bps first-lien term loan was bid at 48.25 today, down from 59.12 on 24 November, according to Markit.

"AbitibiBowater, as the number one market share player [with 41%], was always going to hold onto prices as long as they could," said one of the industry sources. "It's finally starting to show up now that smaller players are breaking ranks, but White Birch and other companies had been making their undercutting moves since back around September."

AbitibiBowater bowed to pressure from White Birch last week when it rescinded a USD 20 per-ton price increase, according to three of the industry sources. The Canadian-US behemoth also announced last week the removal of 830,000 tons of newsprint capacity.
West Coast paper producers Catalyst Paper (7.8% market share) and Norpac (5%), have already been pricing at a discount to the AbitibiBowater-dominated East Coast market for the better part of a year. West Coast newsprint prices tracked near USD 700 per ton in November, said the sources. An official from Norpac declined to comment, and Catalyst Paper did not return calls.

The pricing conflict is also spreading into the coated free sheet paper market as Gannett is rumoured to have negotiated a USD 1,060 per ton contract with NewPage, down from November's USD 1,100 per ton price point, said one of the buysiders. A spokesperson for NewPage would not comment on specific contracts with its customers, but maintained the company is "holding price just fine".
Similar to newsprint, the coated paper sector has been under pressure to take out capacity in order to offset demand declines and boost pricing. Coated free sheet and newsprint consumption were both down roughly 15% year-to-date, according to a sellside analyst.
NewPage's USD 800m 10% second-lien notes due 2012 were bid at 40.5 on 5 December, down from 56.5 on 24 November, according to TRACE

Thursday, December 04, 2008

Engineers See Major Paper Mill Savings With New Rotor Technology


No Pulp Fiction: Engineers See Major Paper Mill Savings With New Rotor Technology
By Brian Lin with files from Erinrose Handy

A partnership between UBC, government and the pulp and paper industry has resulted in the development of three high efficiency pulp screen rotors that produce high quality paper while reducing almost half the energy required.

“There are currently 300 pulp screens in British Columbia’s 20 pulp and paper mills,” says UBC Mechanical Engineering Assoc. Prof. James Olson. “The industry consumes almost 20 per cent of all the electricity produced in the province and pulp screening is an energy intensive operation in that process.”

Pulp screens work somewhat like the spin cycle in a household washing machine by rotating at high speeds and forcing pulp through narrow openings in the screen. Pulp screens in B.C. alone consume 300 Gigawatt Hours per year at an estimated cost of $16 million -- or enough energy to light up 15,000 homes.

Olson and fellow UBC engineers Carl Ollivier-Gooch and Mark Martinez, along with industrial partners at Montreal-based Advanced Fiber Technologies Inc., took inspiration from aerospace technology and designed a family of uniquely shaped, hydrodynamic rotors that significantly reduce drag and operate at much lower speeds and power, while increasing the capacity and efficiency of the screen.

The technology was patented and licensed to Advanced Fiber Technologies and 100 new rotors were installed in 30 mills across Canada.

“The trial results were beyond everyone’s expectations -- reducing electricity consumption by 52 per cent compared to current state-of-the-art rotors,” says Olson. “If all pulp screens used in B.C. mills were converted to the new rotor technology, an estimated $8 million could be saved each year. Adopted nation-wide, the industry could save $20 million a year.”

While the cost savings would increase the industry’s competitiveness against new paper producers such as China, the reduced energy usage also translates into lower greenhouse emissions. The new technology could also cement Canada’s leadership in pulp equipment manufacturing and further diversify a sector that currently logs $53 billion in sales and $44 billion in exports per year.

As a result of the success in the mill trials, the research team has won BC Hydro’s New Technology of the Year Award (2007), the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC)’s Synergy Award for Partnership and Innovation (2007), and the British Columbia Innovations Council’s Lieutenant Governor’s Award (2008).

The work has also led to a $2.2 million investment from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and a partnership with 11 industry partners including BC Hydro and most of the paper mills in B.C.

“There’s a gap between electricity supply and demand in B.C. and we need to do more to conserve power,” says Lisa Coltart, BC Hydro’s director of Power Smart. “We’re excited to contribute to research that will provide substantial energy savings while making the province a world leader in the field.”

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Right or wrong, Kimberly mill closed


Right or wrong, Kimberly mill closed
http://www.postcrescent.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080921/APC0701/809210571/1028
The Kimberly mill owned by NewPage is shut down. Another pillar of the building that was holding the Fox Valley paper industry has been removed. I hope all options were explored before the shutdown order was given. I hope the shutdown is temporary.


Current information: It's my understanding that the shut-down mill will be kept "alive" at a minimum subsistence level of heat and maintenance crew so things do not fall apart. It seems like an OK approach but could be risky to the valuable equipment that the mill possesses. If the mill is not reopened for business soon, there is one more important "thing" the company will lose, and that is its talented work force. So whatever the long-range plan may be, the owners should start the mill soon and keep the talent-pool from breaking up. It will be difficult to put the teams together soon.

Another major impact of delay will be the loss of Kimberly mill's devoted customers. Once gone, it will be hard and time-consuming to recreate trust and get them back.
Needed evaluations: It is true that if the business is not making money, it will fail. I am sure the mill owners have done an exhaustive job of saving the mill but could not do so because of economic reasons. NewPage must have considered: restarting the mill (most economical option); employee buyout; government intervention to level the import-export playing field and selling to a new buyer, etc.
The restart consideration must have involved cutting costs of raw material, energy and labor; purchase of pulp from Wisconsin paper companies with overcapacity. They must have also fully debated how to save 500 families from devastation.

Most U.S. paper companies are blaming foreign competition, especially from China, as the core cause for our failure. I do not think it makes sense. My calculations, based on per capita consumption and total U.S. production figures, show that there should be a shortage (not a glut) of paper and paperboard in the United States.
Could there be other reasons such as stock analyst's expectations of unusually higher returns on investment? If true, we are at fault.

Closing of Kimberly mill: Shocking for some, OK with others, but devastating for those who lost their jobs. I think if the current trend continues, the U.S. may be in danger of becoming a "consumer-goods hostage." We must decrease dependency for essential goods from foreign countries. To compete, we must modernize our paper mills, increase productivity, and invest in research and development and invent new-efficient processes and value-added products for our markets, worldwide.
If I were a sarcastic person, I would write that what if the mill is closed and 600 people lost their jobs, at least we have PCB-free Fox River (we think we have) at a cost of more than $350 million.

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Paper Companies to Cut Thousands of Jobs


Paper Companies to Cut Thousands of Jobs
A combined 3,300 positions eliminated at UPM, Stora Enso.
By Jason Fell
http://www.foliomag.com


It appears that UPM Kymmene, the world's largest producer of magazine paper, is following through on its plans for consolidation. The company said it plans to cut 1,600 jobs between 2009 and 2010 as part of a reorganization.

Also as part of the reorganization, UPM is considering the closure of a number of its mills in Finland, the company said in a statement. The changes come as a result of rising costs and a crowded industry.

"UPM's employees have succeeded in increasing the internal efficiency to a new level but unfortunately cost pressures have multiplied," president and CEO Jussi Pesonen said. "The situation is striking particularly in Finland, where wood prices have increased to such a high level that profitable operation of all our units is no longer possible. With today's market outlook and the recent cost development, UPM's paper and pulp production in Finland can not continue in its current form and extent."

If UPM does in fact close the mills, the company says it will book a write-off of about $240 million in fixed assets for the fourth quarter, make a provision for the reduction in the number of employees and for other closure costs of about $42 million.

The reorganization would save UPM nearly $98 million annually and would have a positive impact on EBITDA, the company said.

UPM reported first half revenue was about $7.03 billion, down about 5 percent from $7.43 billion during the first half of 2007. Net profit for the half was $132.27 million, up from a net loss of $291 million during the same period last year.

Job Cuts at Stora Enso

Stora Enso Oyj, another Finland-based paper producer, also announced plans for a reorganization which it said would eliminate 1,700 positions.

As part of the reorganization, Stora Enso said it will close a paper machine in Germany that produces 140,000 tons of coated magazine paper per year.

The company said it plans to invest $190 million to improve efficiency and that estimated annual operating profit would improve by about $200 by the end of 2010 as a result of the reorganization.

Sunday, August 24, 2008

Review: Paper Trails


Review: Paper Trails
by Mandy Haggith
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/arts/main.jhtml?xml=/arts/2008/08/23/bohag123.xml

Mary Wakefield discovers the true cost of paper
It's unusual to come across a book that manages to be both very boring and very interesting at the same time. It happens sometimes with people - old relatives, for instance, and their meticulous recollections of doodlebugs and powdered egg - but only rarely with books.

So Paper Trails, one woman's mission to uncover the evils of the global paper industry, contains an extra unintentional conundrum: is it fascinating or dead.

Is it amazing that an average Brit uses over 440lbs of paper a year? That the world consumes just under a million tons a day, which if it were laid out in A4 sheets would wrap around the equator 1,500 times? That a third of all forms become out of date before they're distributed? Or is it tedious? I'm in two minds.

Perhaps this curious boring/exciting thing is a quality inherent in paper itself. After all, paper can be some of the dullest stuff on earth: the crumpled trouble-makers found inside jammed copiers, graph paper, cash-machine receipts, junk mail.

Or it can be terrifically exciting. Nothing since has ever compared to the teen allure of hunky-dory paper: thick, ridged, purple, yellow, red, ready for writing on in silver pen. Then there's greaseproof paper, that harbinger of deliciousness, and clever little Rizlas, and brown paper packages tied up with string.

And oddly, Mandy Haggith, the author, is herself subject to the same boring/interesting schizophrenia.

She says in chapter one that she once made a big pile of all the paper a person uses in a year, and exhibited it in her local town hall so that her pals could repent of their wasteful ways. How dull is that?

"It made my neighbours gasp," says Mandy. I suspect they were yawning. Then she confesses to a "weakness" for hand-made paper. Hand-made paper is loathsome. No one writes jokes on hand-made paper and sometimes there are flowers pressed into its fibres. Why not spiders? Much better. More appealing to kids.

On the upside, Haggith's journey has the comic nobility of a heartfelt crusade.

Paper Trails documents her paper-chase round the world, following her subject from birth to death: from logging (often illegal) through to pulping, paper-making, paper-wasting, paper-recycling; tree-huggers chasing tree muggers.

And it's not all stats and lectures; there are touching passages whenever Mandy meets up with a handsome barefoot environmentalists and her prose blossoms: "The broadleaf trees were in full autumn colours, vine leaves shouting red up aspen trunks crowned with fluttering gold coinage."

The paper industry also turns out to be full of fabulous baddies, straight from the pages of a Carl Hiaasen novel.

In Indonesia, Mandy meets nasty loggers, all smokers and scowlers who employ bouncers trained by US marines to warn our girl detective off. They flout regulations, make off with irreplaceable trees, and plant in their stead the alien acacia which sucks the water from the land and poisons the soil.

In Russia Mandy tackles the aluminium tycoon Oleg Deripaska, who owns a paper mill on the edge of beautiful lake Baikal. Baikal contains 20 per cent of the world's liquid drinking water (see, that's interesting, isn't it?) but the plant has been accused of polluting it, which is very aggravating for the Nerpa, the world's only earless, fresh-water seals.

Still, on the plus side, Haggith has a very satisfying pop at Vanity Fair. "Their Green Issue was full of puff-pieces on the environmental credentials of American celebrities, yet not even printed on recycled paper".

The paper industry is accused of buying up ancient trees, home to monkeys and moths, and turning them into pulp on pub toilet floors. Isn't the 21st century great?

But then just when you're ready to join Mandy's gang and to ignore all the brain-numbing passages of eco-bore, she'll introduce you to one of her friends: "In an era of increasing competition and growing concern about corporate responsibility," says Ginger Cassidy from ForestEthics, "companies must demonstrate their values and protect their brand by implementing better environmental policies."

Now that's a real waste of paper.
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Norske Skog sees newsprint price hikes
By Camilla Knudsen and John Acher
http://www.reuters.com/article/Paper08/idUSLL26832820080822

OSLO/HELSINKI (Reuters) - Norwegian papermaker Norske Skog (NSG.OL: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) sees European newsprint prices increasing in 2009 by more than rising costs, giving some margin improvement, the company's chief executive said on Wednesday.

The paper industry has struggled to climb out of a six-year slump, dogged by overcapacity, soft demand and prices and rising costs of raw material and energy which have kept earnings poor. European producers have also suffered from a weak dollar that has put them at a disadvantage to North American rivals.

Newsprint, the paper newspapers are printed on, has been one of the hardest hit segments, partly because of the shift over the last decade to electronic publishing from print media.

Norske Skog sees a tighter balance in the European newsprint market due partly to capacity closures, but also aided by price increases in North America and steep price rises in Asia, Chief Executive Christian Rynning-Toennesen said.

"We believe in price increases in European newsprint next year," Rynning-Toennesen told the Reuters Paper Summit, calling it "highly likely." Newsprint prices are set in annual negotiations with customers, talks that will begin this autumn.

He declined to say by how much he expected prices to rise but said: "There's an unusually strong combination of price increases in the other major markets in the world plus a tightening of the market balance in Europe."

Norske Skog is the world's No. 2 newsprint producer. Other producers agreed that newsprint prices are headed up in Europe.

BIG PRICE HIKES

"We are speaking of a substantial price increase," Swedish papermaker Holmen Chief Executive Magnus Hall told the summit.

Costs are rising, though there has been some easing off in the rise in energy prices and recovered paper prices have flattened out, Rynning-Toennesen said. "I still expect cost pressure throughout the rest of this year," he said.

"In European newsprint, it is likely that we will see price increases bigger than cost increases so that there is some margin improvement," Rynning-Toennesen said.

Magazine paper prices are up and can go further, he said.

Norske Skog has implemented 5 to 7 percent price rises from the second quarter into the third quarter on new contracts, he said. "And we still think there is room to increase prices of magazine paper further from where they are now," he said.

The demand picture in newsprint remains soft in the mature markets of Europe and North America.

"It's already quite obvious that the price increases we see in the United States are because of the (capacity) closures that have been done there because the market for newsprint in the U.S. is declining," he said.

Newsprint demand in Europe is down by 2 percent in the year to date from the same period last year, he said.

"In the U.S. it is obviously continuing down -- it was 8 percent down in the last 8 months in the last 12 months -- whereas we still see very solid growth in Asia outside of Japan, which means particularly high growth in China and India."

"We believe in a slowly downward trend in European newsprint consumption, a steeper decline in U.S. consumption also for the rest of the year, and continued good growth in Asia and South America," he said.

(Reporting by Terje Solsvik, Camilla Knudsen, Sakari Suoninen and John Acher; Editing by David Cowell)

Thursday, August 07, 2008

Death Watch in a Mill Town


Death Watch in a Mill Town

High oil prices may be the final blow for a legendary paper plant
By Alex Kingsbury
http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/national/2008/08/05/death-watch-in-a-mill-town.html

MILLINOCKET, MAINE-The name Millinocket comes from the Abenaki Indian expression for the "many islands," a fitting description of the region near the geographic center of th e state. It was the thousands of acres of timberland and the rivers, on which logs could be floated, that attracted the paper makers a century ago. But mention Millinocket in New England, and it's never clear if you're speaking about the town itself or its old industrial anchor, the Katahdin paper mill, once the world's largest paper producing facility. In fact, there was a time when most phone books on the East Coast came from the Millinocket mill.

The mill no longer holds that title, but its No. 11 machine still spins out more than a thousand miles of paper a day in rolls wider than a two-lane road, mostly for glossy circulars and magazines (including in the past U.S. News). That's more than enough to paper a highway from Boston to Chicago. It has been a mild summer and a relatively good one for making paper, with orders for the high-quality "supercalendared" stock flowing in. But the mill and the town are facing a hard winter. The abrupt jump in fuel oil prices has made paper production dauntingly expensive, perhaps too expensive to keep the mill going, while the soaring cost of home heating oil has made living here equally challenging for anxious millworkers and other residents.

Sitting in a conference room in the mill's ivy-covered, brick administrative building, located at one end of the town's main street, mill manager Serge Sorokin outlines the problem on a whiteboard. "This is what oil prices means for Millinocket," he says, writing with a red felt marker. "We use about 400,000 barrels of fuel oil per year, and 18 months ago, we bought it at around $40 per barrel." He writes the numbers on the board. "Now, the price per barrel is $110." Sorokin, who studied paper engineering at the State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, does the arithmetic and underlines the corporate bottom line: The annual cost of making paper went up here by $28 million.

But the bottom line that matters most here is that the mill could close within weeks, unless the company, Maine's governor, and its congressional delegation are able to find funding to help keep No. 11 rolling. Already, paper orders have dropped off because of the possible closing, and there is talk that skittish national retailers dropped plans to occupy some of the vacant space in the town's commercial strip. The company scraped together enough orders to keep the mill running through the end of August.

A sister mill in East Millinocket long ago supplemented its oil boiler with a biomass burner, which uses treetops and boughs as fuel. Normally, those cuttings are left on the ground when the timber is cleared. Not only does the sister mill still churn out phone-book paper, but it also produces more power from the biomass boiler than it can use, pumping some of the energy back into the power grid. For years, there's been talk of similarly adapting the Katahdin mill, but installation and retrofitting the existing equipment would cost millions of dollars and take time. "Biomass is an attractive option, but it's hard to see how we can get there from here," says Bill Manzer, a senior vice president at the Toronto-based Fraser Paper, which operates both facilities.

Social costs. Michael Michaud's first job in 1973 was driving a truck for the East Millinocket Mill. His father worked there for 40 years, his grandfather for 45. Now a Democratic congressman for Maine's Second District, he is working to find emergency funding to help keep the Katahdin mill open, to provide home heating oil assistance to low-income residents, and to help with the often overlooked social costs that come with layoffs. "When these things happen, there's an increase in alcohol and drug use, domestic violence, a loss of retirement savings, and higher healthcare costs that often get overlooked by people in Washington who may see more drilling for domestic oil as the catch-all solution," he says. Since he left the mill to run for Congress in 2002 (after serving part time in the state Legislature), he's still on the books as an employee on unpaid leave. "You want to be optimistic and give people hope," he says, "but it can't be false hope either."

Budgets are tight in Augusta, the state capital, and in Washington. While the congressional delegation will probably get the low-income assistance, it's unlikely it will be able to do much to rescue the mill. Besides, some argue that it's not the government's responsibility to bail out companies that, when prices were low, didn't modernize their machinery and diversify their energy sources. In the meantime, paper production shifted from American timberland to Asia.

Sadly, as goes the mill, so goes Millinocket, a company town built almost entirely by the Great Northern Paper Co. at the turn of the 20th century. Historically, it was hard to separate the two. At one point, for instance, a man named George W. Stearns was at once Great Northern's land agent, head of the town selectmen, the county judge, and the superintendent of schools. The town named the high school after him when it was completed in 1923, which was fitting because the mill donated a quarter of the construction costs.

For the better part of a century, Great Northern owned most of the land in northern Maine, much of which is still unincorporated. That kept out other employers, an unwritten company policy that held down labor costs but is now coming back to haunt the town. Even after decades of downsizing, the Katahdin mill, where employment has fallen from about 4,500 in the mid-1980s to around 200 today, is the second-largest employer, behind the regional hospital. Tourism now provides some jobs because the Appalachian Trail terminates atop Mount Katahdin, just a few miles outside town. In the winter, snowmobiling brings in the tourists, though high gas prices are likely to cut their numbers.

Like the mill, the town is showing its age. Under union rules, those with the least seniority (generally the youngest employees) were the first to lose their jobs. And many didn't hang around, instead taking their families to the coast or the southern part of the state, where the jobs picture was better. In 1990, the average age in town was 37. Now, officials say, it's around 50. The old George W. Stearns High School, meanwhile, long ago was converted into an assisted living facility.

"Future is bleak." Sitting in the cafe on Penobscot Avenue, a retired, second-generation millworker looks dubiously at his salad, poking it with a fork, and gripes. "Millinocket is turning into a retirement community," he says, glancing over at a group of young hikers scarfing down hamburgers before tackling the mountain. Then he whispers, "Don't you quote me sayin' it, though. This is a small town, and we stick together." Across town, the owners of Kim's Market on Medway Road shuttered their doors in July after a decade of serving sandwiches and beer to locals, but they don't want to say much either. In his downtown office, town manager Eugene Conlogue is less reticent. "The future is bleak for a community that only ages," he says.

Property values, for instance, have fallen as the mill's workforce has shrunk. Today, out-of-state residents own some of the town's Victorian-style homes and use them as vacation cabins. They often don't cut the grass or clean the clutter, and they don't send their kids to the local schools. For residents, this will be a particularly hard winter. A typical home along Penobscot Avenue burns about 800 gallons of fuel oil during a heating season. At current prices, that will come to $3,200 this winter, up from $1,700 a year ago. While that alone is a mighty hit to the family pocketbook, factor in high gasoline and food prices, and the impact can be devastating.

For the town, shuttering the mill would be catastrophic. The closure would cost the town some $2.5 million in taxes from the company that the community sorely needs, not to mention the scores of families who may leave town. Congressman Michaud remembers earlier hard times, soon after he first began working at the mill during the energy crisis in 1979. The mills were in danger then, too, because of rising oil prices, but managed to survive. As a result of that energy crisis, the East Millinocket mill put in the biomass boiler. If anything is to be saved from the Great Northern project, it will take the same Yankee ingenuity that a century ago harnessed waterways of the land of many islands to feed the paper mills.